**Ben-Gvir has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint list with Smotrich, declaring any such alliance “final and complete” with no talks or meetings possible.** This stance, maintained since at least June 2026, stems from the parties’ distinct voter bases—Otzma Yehudit’s broader nationalist appeal versus Religious Zionism’s more sectoral religious-Zionist focus—and Ben-Gvir’s assessment that running separately maximizes right-wing seats overall. Smotrich has similarly prioritized independence or other partners, reaching a technical bloc agreement with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party on September 1. Both Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut slate submitted independent lists ahead of the September 8 deadline for the October 27 election, locking in separation. Netanyahu’s public calls for unification failed to shift the positions. With lists now finalized, reversal would require extraordinary procedural intervention, an unlikely development given the explicit rejections and completed filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,666 Vol.
$2,666 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
<1% chance
$2,666 Vol.
$2,666 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint list with Smotrich, declaring any such alliance “final and complete” with no talks or meetings possible.** This stance, maintained since at least June 2026, stems from the parties’ distinct voter bases—Otzma Yehudit’s broader nationalist appeal versus Religious Zionism’s more sectoral religious-Zionist focus—and Ben-Gvir’s assessment that running separately maximizes right-wing seats overall. Smotrich has similarly prioritized independence or other partners, reaching a technical bloc agreement with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party on September 1. Both Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut slate submitted independent lists ahead of the September 8 deadline for the October 27 election, locking in separation. Netanyahu’s public calls for unification failed to shift the positions. With lists now finalized, reversal would require extraordinary procedural intervention, an unlikely development given the explicit rejections and completed filings.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,666End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint list with Smotrich, declaring any such alliance “final and complete” with no talks or meetings possible.** This stance, maintained since at least June 2026, stems from the parties’ distinct voter bases—Otzma Yehudit’s broader nationalist appeal versus Religious Zionism’s more sectoral religious-Zionist focus—and Ben-Gvir’s assessment that running separately maximizes right-wing seats overall. Smotrich has similarly prioritized independence or other partners, reaching a technical bloc agreement with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party on September 1. Both Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut slate submitted independent lists ahead of the September 8 deadline for the October 27 election, locking in separation. Netanyahu’s public calls for unification failed to shift the positions. With lists now finalized, reversal would require extraordinary procedural intervention, an unlikely development given the explicit rejections and completed filings.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$2,666End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Ben-Gvir has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint list with Smotrich, declaring any such alliance “final and complete” with no talks or meetings possible.** This stance, maintained since at least June 2026, stems from the parties’ distinct voter bases—Otzma Yehudit’s broader nationalist appeal versus Religious Zionism’s more sectoral religious-Zionist focus—and Ben-Gvir’s assessment that running separately maximizes right-wing seats overall. Smotrich has similarly prioritized independence or other partners, reaching a technical bloc agreement with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party on September 1. Both Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut slate submitted independent lists ahead of the September 8 deadline for the October 27 election, locking in separation. Netanyahu’s public calls for unification failed to shift the positions. With lists now finalized, reversal would require extraordinary procedural intervention, an unlikely development given the explicit rejections and completed filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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