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icon for Sonora Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sonora Governor Election Winner

icon for Sonora Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sonora Governor Election Winner

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 27%

Javier Lamarque Cano 25%

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 20.8%

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 14.0%

Polymarket

$38,175 Vol.

Lorenia Valles Sampedro 27%

Javier Lamarque Cano 25%

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas 20.8%

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez 14.0%

Polymarket

$38,175 Vol.

icon for Lorenia Valles Sampedro

Lorenia Valles Sampedro

$25,463 Vol.

27%

icon for Javier Lamarque Cano

Javier Lamarque Cano

$4,003 Vol.

25%

icon for Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

$1,660 Vol.

21%

icon for Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez

Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez

$982 Vol.

14%

icon for Célida Teresa López Cárdenas

Célida Teresa López Cárdenas

$554 Vol.

6%

icon for Natalia Rivera Grijalva

Natalia Rivera Grijalva

$376 Vol.

3%

icon for Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez

Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez

$428 Vol.

3%

icon for Ernesto Gándara Camou

Ernesto Gándara Camou

$617 Vol.

3%

icon for Froylán Gámez Gamboa

Froylán Gámez Gamboa

$334 Vol.

1%

icon for Manuel Scott Sánchez

Manuel Scott Sánchez

$366 Vol.

1%

icon for Lilly Téllez García

Lilly Téllez García

$399 Vol.

1%

icon for Omar del Valle Colosio

Omar del Valle Colosio

$418 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rogelio Díaz Brown

Rogelio Díaz Brown

$355 Vol.

<1%

icon for Víctor Hugo Celaya

Víctor Hugo Celaya

$344 Vol.

<1%

icon for Guadalupe María Soto

Guadalupe María Soto

$386 Vol.

<1%

icon for Damián Zepeda Vidales

Damián Zepeda Vidales

$333 Vol.

<1%

icon for Patricia Mercado Castro

Patricia Mercado Castro

$474 Vol.

<1%

icon for María Dolores del Río Sánchez

María Dolores del Río Sánchez

$367 Vol.

<1%

icon for Heriberto Aguilar Castillo

Heriberto Aguilar Castillo

$318 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.**Morena maintains a substantial structural edge in Sonora ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial contest, reflected in repeated polling showing the party and its allies with 40-50% party identification versus roughly 10-20% for the PAN and lower shares for Movimiento Ciudadano and the PRI.** This underpins trader pricing that clusters the highest probabilities around Morena-aligned figures Lorenia Valles Sampedro (26.5%) and Javier Lamarque Cano (24.0%), followed by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas of MC (20.8%) and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez of the PAN (14.0%). Valles requested Senate leave in June 2026 to pursue the Morena coordination role and has led or closely contested recent internal surveys, aided by favorable name recognition and opinion balances; Lamarque remains within a few points in July-August measurements. The broader field stays fragmented because candidate selection processes are ongoing, opposition parties lack unified frontrunners, and the election remains more than nine months away, leaving room for shifts from further internal polling, coalition decisions, or late developments.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$38,175
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.**Morena maintains a substantial structural edge in Sonora ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial contest, reflected in repeated polling showing the party and its allies with 40-50% party identification versus roughly 10-20% for the PAN and lower shares for Movimiento Ciudadano and the PRI.** This underpins trader pricing that clusters the highest probabilities around Morena-aligned figures Lorenia Valles Sampedro (26.5%) and Javier Lamarque Cano (24.0%), followed by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas of MC (20.8%) and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez of the PAN (14.0%). Valles requested Senate leave in June 2026 to pursue the Morena coordination role and has led or closely contested recent internal surveys, aided by favorable name recognition and opinion balances; Lamarque remains within a few points in July-August measurements. The broader field stays fragmented because candidate selection processes are ongoing, opposition parties lack unified frontrunners, and the election remains more than nine months away, leaving room for shifts from further internal polling, coalition decisions, or late developments.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$38,175
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sonora Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lorenia Valles Sampedro" at 27%, followed by "Javier Lamarque Cano" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sonora Governor Election Winner" has generated $38.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sonora Governor Election Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sonora Governor Election Winner" is "Lorenia Valles Sampedro" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Javier Lamarque Cano" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sonora Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.