Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.2% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical disturbances and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resuming only on May 15 amid offseason quiet. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold optimal for rapid intensification, combined with elevated wind shear suppressing organization, mirroring historical rarity—fewer than one preseason hurricane per decade on average since 1851. Model consensus shows no development potential through late May, though an anomalous tropical wave entering a brief low-shear window with unexpectedly warm SSTs could theoretically intensify to 74 mph sustained winds before deadline; daily NHC updates starting Friday will provide key refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$48,814 Vol.
$48,814 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$48,814 Vol.
$48,814 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.2% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical disturbances and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resuming only on May 15 amid offseason quiet. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold optimal for rapid intensification, combined with elevated wind shear suppressing organization, mirroring historical rarity—fewer than one preseason hurricane per decade on average since 1851. Model consensus shows no development potential through late May, though an anomalous tropical wave entering a brief low-shear window with unexpectedly warm SSTs could theoretically intensify to 74 mph sustained winds before deadline; daily NHC updates starting Friday will provide key refinements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$48,814End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.2% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical disturbances and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resuming only on May 15 amid offseason quiet. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold optimal for rapid intensification, combined with elevated wind shear suppressing organization, mirroring historical rarity—fewer than one preseason hurricane per decade on average since 1851. Model consensus shows no development potential through late May, though an anomalous tropical wave entering a brief low-shear window with unexpectedly warm SSTs could theoretically intensify to 74 mph sustained winds before deadline; daily NHC updates starting Friday will provide key refinements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$48,814End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.2% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical disturbances and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance resuming only on May 15 amid offseason quiet. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold optimal for rapid intensification, combined with elevated wind shear suppressing organization, mirroring historical rarity—fewer than one preseason hurricane per decade on average since 1851. Model consensus shows no development potential through late May, though an anomalous tropical wave entering a brief low-shear window with unexpectedly warm SSTs could theoretically intensify to 74 mph sustained winds before deadline; daily NHC updates starting Friday will provide key refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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