Skip to main content
icon for FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Yen Bailey 59%

Amanda Green 17%

Brice Barnes 9.4%

Nic Zateslo 6.5%

Polymarket

$50,733 Vol.

Yen Bailey 59%

Amanda Green 17%

Brice Barnes 9.4%

Nic Zateslo 6.5%

Polymarket

$50,733 Vol.

Yen Bailey

$19,569 Vol.

59%

Amanda Green

$11,477 Vol.

17%

Brice Barnes

$6,689 Vol.

9%

Nic Zateslo

$12,997 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Yen Bailey holds the lead in trader consensus for the FL-02 Democratic primary ahead of the August 18 vote, reflecting her name recognition from the 2024 general election and sustained local outreach across the North Florida district. Recent candidate forums and a televised debate have allowed Bailey, Nic Zateslo, Brice Barnes, and Amanda Green to differentiate on healthcare access, federal accountability, and economic priorities, yet the field remains fragmented with limited public polling to clarify support levels. Bailey's prior vote share and campaign infrastructure provide a measurable edge in this low-visibility primary, while the other contenders rely on fundraising hauls and targeted appeals to build momentum before ballots close. Developments such as stronger turnout among specific voter blocs or late endorsements could still shift the outcome in the final hours.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,733
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Yen Bailey holds the lead in trader consensus for the FL-02 Democratic primary ahead of the August 18 vote, reflecting her name recognition from the 2024 general election and sustained local outreach across the North Florida district. Recent candidate forums and a televised debate have allowed Bailey, Nic Zateslo, Brice Barnes, and Amanda Green to differentiate on healthcare access, federal accountability, and economic priorities, yet the field remains fragmented with limited public polling to clarify support levels. Bailey's prior vote share and campaign infrastructure provide a measurable edge in this low-visibility primary, while the other contenders rely on fundraising hauls and targeted appeals to build momentum before ballots close. Developments such as stronger turnout among specific voter blocs or late endorsements could still shift the outcome in the final hours.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,733
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?

Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?

76%
icon for Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?

Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?

61%
icon for Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

81%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yen Bailey" at 59%, followed by "Amanda Green" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $50.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Yen Bailey" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Amanda Green" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.