Skip to main content
icon for FL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner

Austin Rogers 81%

Keith Gross 18%

Jim Norton 2.1%

Evan Power 1.6%

Polymarket

$69,528 Vol.

Austin Rogers 81%

Keith Gross 18%

Jim Norton 2.1%

Evan Power 1.6%

Polymarket

$69,528 Vol.

icon for Austin Rogers

Austin Rogers

$33,019 Vol.

81%

icon for Keith Gross

Keith Gross

$24,820 Vol.

18%

icon for Jim Norton

Jim Norton

$3,219 Vol.

2%

icon for Evan Power

Evan Power

$4,848 Vol.

2%

icon for Lee Jones

Lee Jones

$537 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nick Lewis

Nick Lewis

$1,450 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luke Murphy

Luke Murphy

$1,124 Vol.

<1%

icon for Audie Rowell

Audie Rowell

$511 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Austin Rogers holds the strongest position in the Florida 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, an open-seat contest scheduled for August 18, 2026, due to his consistent gains in late polling and local name recognition as a Panama City native and former general counsel to U.S. Senator Rick Scott. A recent co/efficient survey showed him at 25% support, ahead of Evan Power and Luke Murphy, with Keith Gross dropping sharply to single digits. Rogers has also led in fundraising among most rivals and benefits from alignment with the district’s conservative voter base on issues such as border security and America First priorities. A withdrawn attack advertisement tied to a PAC connected to his family highlighted Gross’s prior Democratic affiliation and personal background, though the contest remains fragmented among nine candidates with no single opponent consolidating opposition. Market pricing reflects trader assessment of these polling and structural dynamics ahead of primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$69,528
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Austin Rogers holds the strongest position in the Florida 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, an open-seat contest scheduled for August 18, 2026, due to his consistent gains in late polling and local name recognition as a Panama City native and former general counsel to U.S. Senator Rick Scott. A recent co/efficient survey showed him at 25% support, ahead of Evan Power and Luke Murphy, with Keith Gross dropping sharply to single digits. Rogers has also led in fundraising among most rivals and benefits from alignment with the district’s conservative voter base on issues such as border security and America First priorities. A withdrawn attack advertisement tied to a PAC connected to his family highlighted Gross’s prior Democratic affiliation and personal background, though the contest remains fragmented among nine candidates with no single opponent consolidating opposition. Market pricing reflects trader assessment of these polling and structural dynamics ahead of primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$69,528
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

98%
icon for Will John Rutherford be the FL-05 Republican nominee?

Will John Rutherford be the FL-05 Republican nominee?

97%
icon for Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?

Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?

59%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Austin Rogers" at 81%, followed by "Keith Gross" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $69.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Austin Rogers" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keith Gross" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.