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Politics·Primaries

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-22 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Carbonara 35%

Belinda Keiser 33%

Casey Askar 17.5%

David Burck 16.2%

Polymarket

$80,644 Vol.

Michael Carbonara 35%

Belinda Keiser 33%

Casey Askar 17.5%

David Burck 16.2%

Polymarket

$80,644 Vol.

Michael Carbonara

$45,342 Vol.

35%

Belinda Keiser

$11,358 Vol.

33%

Casey Askar

$10,185 Vol.

18%

David Burck

$11,988 Vol.

16%

Richard Evans

$602 Vol.

<1%

Terri Hasdorff

$436 Vol.

<1%

Michael Thompson

$732 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Florida's 22nd congressional district Republican primary, set for August 18, features a tight contest among self-funded candidates Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, each investing millions amid redistricting that created an open seat. Recent polling shows the top three in a statistical tie with over 40 percent of likely Republican voters undecided, while Club for Growth's endorsement of Carbonara and its ads targeting Askar highlight efforts to consolidate conservative support. Absence of a Trump endorsement and negative reporting on frontrunners sustain uncertainty, with voter turnout, final ad spending, and any late shifts among undecideds positioned to determine separation before primary resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$80,644
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Florida's 22nd congressional district Republican primary, set for August 18, features a tight contest among self-funded candidates Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, each investing millions amid redistricting that created an open seat. Recent polling shows the top three in a statistical tie with over 40 percent of likely Republican voters undecided, while Club for Growth's endorsement of Carbonara and its ads targeting Askar highlight efforts to consolidate conservative support. Absence of a Trump endorsement and negative reporting on frontrunners sustain uncertainty, with voter turnout, final ad spending, and any late shifts among undecideds positioned to determine separation before primary resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$80,644
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-22 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Carbonara" at 35%, followed by "Belinda Keiser" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-22 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $80.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-22 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-22 Republican Primary Winner" is "Michael Carbonara" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Belinda Keiser" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-22 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.