Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily maximum of 81 °F on August 25, 2026, reached at 2:32 p.m. CDT under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and no precipitation. This single verified reading aligns precisely with the 80–81 °F bin that now carries a 100 % market-implied probability. Supporting data from Midway and other nearby stations showed comparable afternoon peaks near 80 °F, confirming the absence of localized thermal anomalies or model bias that might have shifted the outcome. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-analysis revision of the official maximum or a redefinition of the measurement site—both exceedingly rare once preliminary climatological reports are issued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 25?
80-81°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$30,678 Vol.
$30,678 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$30,678 Vol.
$30,678 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
71°F or below
$827 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$253 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$2,475 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$2,327 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$6,245 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$6,165 Vol.
Yes
82-83°F
$4,844 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$2,057 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$4,714 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$558 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$213 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily maximum of 81 °F on August 25, 2026, reached at 2:32 p.m. CDT under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and no precipitation. This single verified reading aligns precisely with the 80–81 °F bin that now carries a 100 % market-implied probability. Supporting data from Midway and other nearby stations showed comparable afternoon peaks near 80 °F, confirming the absence of localized thermal anomalies or model bias that might have shifted the outcome. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-analysis revision of the official maximum or a redefinition of the measurement site—both exceedingly rare once preliminary climatological reports are issued.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$30,678End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily maximum of 81 °F on August 25, 2026, reached at 2:32 p.m. CDT under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and no precipitation. This single verified reading aligns precisely with the 80–81 °F bin that now carries a 100 % market-implied probability. Supporting data from Midway and other nearby stations showed comparable afternoon peaks near 80 °F, confirming the absence of localized thermal anomalies or model bias that might have shifted the outcome. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-analysis revision of the official maximum or a redefinition of the measurement site—both exceedingly rare once preliminary climatological reports are issued.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,678End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily maximum of 81 °F on August 25, 2026, reached at 2:32 p.m. CDT under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and no precipitation. This single verified reading aligns precisely with the 80–81 °F bin that now carries a 100 % market-implied probability. Supporting data from Midway and other nearby stations showed comparable afternoon peaks near 80 °F, confirming the absence of localized thermal anomalies or model bias that might have shifted the outcome. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-analysis revision of the official maximum or a redefinition of the measurement site—both exceedingly rare once preliminary climatological reports are issued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions