Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on May 13, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest hourly forecast projecting a peak of 23°C around 3 p.m. local time at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), with 21°C at noon and 22°C by evening under partly cloudy conditions and moderate sea breezes. Global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, reflecting high-pressure influence and mid-May climatological norms of 21–22°C average highs, bolstered by recent morning observations building steadily from overnight lows near 17°C. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves negligible room for 24°C or higher (0.1% implied probability), though rapid clearing skies, diminished winds, or enhanced urban heat island effects could marginally challenge it before midnight resolution based on NOAA-recorded airport data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 13?
$57,840 Vol.
$57,840 Vol.
May 13, 2026
23°C
100%
24°C or higher
<1%
$57,840 Vol.
$57,840 Vol.
May 13, 2026
23°C
$14,460 Vol.
100%
24°C or higher
$13,517 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on May 13, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest hourly forecast projecting a peak of 23°C around 3 p.m. local time at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), with 21°C at noon and 22°C by evening under partly cloudy conditions and moderate sea breezes. Global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, reflecting high-pressure influence and mid-May climatological norms of 21–22°C average highs, bolstered by recent morning observations building steadily from overnight lows near 17°C. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves negligible room for 24°C or higher (0.1% implied probability), though rapid clearing skies, diminished winds, or enhanced urban heat island effects could marginally challenge it before midnight resolution based on NOAA-recorded airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$57,840End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on May 13, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest hourly forecast projecting a peak of 23°C around 3 p.m. local time at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), with 21°C at noon and 22°C by evening under partly cloudy conditions and moderate sea breezes. Global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, reflecting high-pressure influence and mid-May climatological norms of 21–22°C average highs, bolstered by recent morning observations building steadily from overnight lows near 17°C. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves negligible room for 24°C or higher (0.1% implied probability), though rapid clearing skies, diminished winds, or enhanced urban heat island effects could marginally challenge it before midnight resolution based on NOAA-recorded airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,840End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on May 13, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest hourly forecast projecting a peak of 23°C around 3 p.m. local time at Istanbul Airport (LTBA), with 21°C at noon and 22°C by evening under partly cloudy conditions and moderate sea breezes. Global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, reflecting high-pressure influence and mid-May climatological norms of 21–22°C average highs, bolstered by recent morning observations building steadily from overnight lows near 17°C. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves negligible room for 24°C or higher (0.1% implied probability), though rapid clearing skies, diminished winds, or enhanced urban heat island effects could marginally challenge it before midnight resolution based on NOAA-recorded airport data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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