Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project consensus high temperatures of 15-17°C for Istanbul Airport—the market's NOAA resolution source—on May 14, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around 15°C (35% implied probability) and 16°C (28%). This positioning stems from a recent cold air intrusion over the Marmara region, combined with cloudy skies and scattered showers forecast by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which suppress daytime solar heating well below May climatological norms of 21°C. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies in precipitation timing and cloud cover extent: earlier clearing favors 16-17°C, while persistent overcast keeps peaks at 14-15°C. Overnight 00Z model runs may narrow the spread before observations begin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
17°C 19%
18°C 9.3%
NEW
$14,735 Vol.
NEW
$14,735 Vol.
May 14, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
30%
16°C
28%
17°C
19%
18°C
9%
19°C or higher
2%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
17°C 19%
18°C 9.3%
NEW
$14,735 Vol.
NEW
$14,735 Vol.
May 14, 2026
9°C or below
$1,349 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,379 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,231 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$737 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,047 Vol.
2%
14°C
$1,675 Vol.
7%
15°C
$1,309 Vol.
30%
16°C
$537 Vol.
28%
17°C
$697 Vol.
19%
18°C
$1,048 Vol.
9%
19°C or higher
$3,727 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project consensus high temperatures of 15-17°C for Istanbul Airport—the market's NOAA resolution source—on May 14, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around 15°C (35% implied probability) and 16°C (28%). This positioning stems from a recent cold air intrusion over the Marmara region, combined with cloudy skies and scattered showers forecast by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which suppress daytime solar heating well below May climatological norms of 21°C. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies in precipitation timing and cloud cover extent: earlier clearing favors 16-17°C, while persistent overcast keeps peaks at 14-15°C. Overnight 00Z model runs may narrow the spread before observations begin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ET
Volume
$14,735End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project consensus high temperatures of 15-17°C for Istanbul Airport—the market's NOAA resolution source—on May 14, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around 15°C (35% implied probability) and 16°C (28%). This positioning stems from a recent cold air intrusion over the Marmara region, combined with cloudy skies and scattered showers forecast by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which suppress daytime solar heating well below May climatological norms of 21°C. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies in precipitation timing and cloud cover extent: earlier clearing favors 16-17°C, while persistent overcast keeps peaks at 14-15°C. Overnight 00Z model runs may narrow the spread before observations begin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,735End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project consensus high temperatures of 15-17°C for Istanbul Airport—the market's NOAA resolution source—on May 14, reflecting trader sentiment clustered around 15°C (35% implied probability) and 16°C (28%). This positioning stems from a recent cold air intrusion over the Marmara region, combined with cloudy skies and scattered showers forecast by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which suppress daytime solar heating well below May climatological norms of 21°C. Differentiating factors include model discrepancies in precipitation timing and cloud cover extent: earlier clearing favors 16-17°C, while persistent overcast keeps peaks at 14-15°C. Overnight 00Z model runs may narrow the spread before observations begin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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