Latest European model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Milan's highest temperature on May 14 clustering around 16–17°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes nearly tied at over 60% combined implied probability. This reflects a cool northerly airflow ushering instability into the Po Valley, fostering cumuliform clouds and showers that cap daytime heating below the 22°C climatological norm—following May 9's 24°C peak at Linate station. Differentiating factors include model spread on precipitation timing and cloud opacity, potentially varying peaks by 1°C; denser cover favors 16°C, clearer breaks 17°C or slightly higher. The Aeronautica Militare's yellow alert for thunderstorms underscores risks, with final 12Z updates key before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 14?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 14?
17°C 31%
16°C 31%
18°C 20%
19°C 12.8%
NEW
$25,807 Vol.
NEW
$25,807 Vol.
May 14, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
31%
17°C
31%
18°C
20%
19°C
13%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 31%
16°C 31%
18°C 20%
19°C 12.8%
NEW
$25,807 Vol.
NEW
$25,807 Vol.
May 14, 2026
10°C or below
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$2,093 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,320 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,008 Vol.
1%
15°C
$3,291 Vol.
5%
16°C
$2,711 Vol.
31%
17°C
$2,388 Vol.
31%
18°C
$2,653 Vol.
20%
19°C
$2,856 Vol.
13%
20°C or higher
$5,370 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest European model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Milan's highest temperature on May 14 clustering around 16–17°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes nearly tied at over 60% combined implied probability. This reflects a cool northerly airflow ushering instability into the Po Valley, fostering cumuliform clouds and showers that cap daytime heating below the 22°C climatological norm—following May 9's 24°C peak at Linate station. Differentiating factors include model spread on precipitation timing and cloud opacity, potentially varying peaks by 1°C; denser cover favors 16°C, clearer breaks 17°C or slightly higher. The Aeronautica Militare's yellow alert for thunderstorms underscores risks, with final 12Z updates key before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$25,807End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest European model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Milan's highest temperature on May 14 clustering around 16–17°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes nearly tied at over 60% combined implied probability. This reflects a cool northerly airflow ushering instability into the Po Valley, fostering cumuliform clouds and showers that cap daytime heating below the 22°C climatological norm—following May 9's 24°C peak at Linate station. Differentiating factors include model spread on precipitation timing and cloud opacity, potentially varying peaks by 1°C; denser cover favors 16°C, clearer breaks 17°C or slightly higher. The Aeronautica Militare's yellow alert for thunderstorms underscores risks, with final 12Z updates key before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,807End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest European model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Milan's highest temperature on May 14 clustering around 16–17°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes nearly tied at over 60% combined implied probability. This reflects a cool northerly airflow ushering instability into the Po Valley, fostering cumuliform clouds and showers that cap daytime heating below the 22°C climatological norm—following May 9's 24°C peak at Linate station. Differentiating factors include model spread on precipitation timing and cloud opacity, potentially varying peaks by 1°C; denser cover favors 16°C, clearer breaks 17°C or slightly higher. The Aeronautica Militare's yellow alert for thunderstorms underscores risks, with final 12Z updates key before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions