Official observations from San Francisco International Airport confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 66–67°F on May 16, aligning with National Weather Service records and driving the market’s near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent onshore marine-layer advection from the Pacific maintained stratus coverage and limited afternoon heating, consistent with typical May climatology near 67°F yet tempered by moderate westerly winds of 15–25 mph that prevented any significant offshore warming. Historical analogs and model consensus had positioned this range as the most probable resolution window. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-event data revision from the primary station or an unprecedented reporting discrepancy, both of which remain statistically rare given standardized measurement protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 16?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 16?
66-67°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$32,336 Vol.
$32,336 Vol.
May 16, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
Yes
68°F or higher
No
66-67°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$32,336 Vol.
$32,336 Vol.
May 16, 2026
49°F or below
$2,510 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$860 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$770 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$2,189 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,065 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$2,515 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$3,733 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$5,556 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$3,259 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$5,300 Vol.
Yes
68°F or higher
$4,579 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from San Francisco International Airport confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 66–67°F on May 16, aligning with National Weather Service records and driving the market’s near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent onshore marine-layer advection from the Pacific maintained stratus coverage and limited afternoon heating, consistent with typical May climatology near 67°F yet tempered by moderate westerly winds of 15–25 mph that prevented any significant offshore warming. Historical analogs and model consensus had positioned this range as the most probable resolution window. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-event data revision from the primary station or an unprecedented reporting discrepancy, both of which remain statistically rare given standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$32,336End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from San Francisco International Airport confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 66–67°F on May 16, aligning with National Weather Service records and driving the market’s near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent onshore marine-layer advection from the Pacific maintained stratus coverage and limited afternoon heating, consistent with typical May climatology near 67°F yet tempered by moderate westerly winds of 15–25 mph that prevented any significant offshore warming. Historical analogs and model consensus had positioned this range as the most probable resolution window. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-event data revision from the primary station or an unprecedented reporting discrepancy, both of which remain statistically rare given standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,336End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from San Francisco International Airport confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 66–67°F on May 16, aligning with National Weather Service records and driving the market’s near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent onshore marine-layer advection from the Pacific maintained stratus coverage and limited afternoon heating, consistent with typical May climatology near 67°F yet tempered by moderate westerly winds of 15–25 mph that prevented any significant offshore warming. Historical analogs and model consensus had positioned this range as the most probable resolution window. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-event data revision from the primary station or an unprecedented reporting discrepancy, both of which remain statistically rare given standardized measurement protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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