**The competitive multi-party contest in Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical levels.** Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading but closely challenged by a resurgent Coalition Avenir Québec, with the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire also viable in multiple ridings under the new 127-seat map. This fragmentation, combined with advance voting periods starting September 25 and a standard civic-duty baseline from the 66% turnout in 2022, keeps the 62–74% range tightly bunched in current pricing. Key variables that could widen probabilities include campaign mobilization intensity among younger voters, regional economic concerns such as cost-of-living pressures or U.S. trade developments, weather on election day, and any late shifts in perceived stakes that alter overall engagement. No major turnout-altering events have emerged since the writs were issued on August 27.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated66-70% 28%
70-74% 22%
62-66% 21%
58-62% 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<58%
11%
58-62%
13%
62-66%
21%
66-70%
28%
70-74%
22%
74%+
13%
66-70% 28%
70-74% 22%
62-66% 21%
58-62% 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<58%
$295 Vol.
11%
58-62%
$53 Vol.
13%
62-66%
$48 Vol.
21%
66-70%
$94 Vol.
28%
70-74%
$39 Vol.
22%
74%+
$191 Vol.
13%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The competitive multi-party contest in Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical levels.** Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading but closely challenged by a resurgent Coalition Avenir Québec, with the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire also viable in multiple ridings under the new 127-seat map. This fragmentation, combined with advance voting periods starting September 25 and a standard civic-duty baseline from the 66% turnout in 2022, keeps the 62–74% range tightly bunched in current pricing.
Key variables that could widen probabilities include campaign mobilization intensity among younger voters, regional economic concerns such as cost-of-living pressures or U.S. trade developments, weather on election day, and any late shifts in perceived stakes that alter overall engagement. No major turnout-altering events have emerged since the writs were issued on August 27.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
Volume
$719End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The competitive multi-party contest in Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical levels.** Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading but closely challenged by a resurgent Coalition Avenir Québec, with the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire also viable in multiple ridings under the new 127-seat map. This fragmentation, combined with advance voting periods starting September 25 and a standard civic-duty baseline from the 66% turnout in 2022, keeps the 62–74% range tightly bunched in current pricing.
Key variables that could widen probabilities include campaign mobilization intensity among younger voters, regional economic concerns such as cost-of-living pressures or U.S. trade developments, weather on election day, and any late shifts in perceived stakes that alter overall engagement. No major turnout-altering events have emerged since the writs were issued on August 27.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$719End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The competitive multi-party contest in Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election anchors trader expectations for turnout near historical levels.** Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading but closely challenged by a resurgent Coalition Avenir Québec, with the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire also viable in multiple ridings under the new 127-seat map. This fragmentation, combined with advance voting periods starting September 25 and a standard civic-duty baseline from the 66% turnout in 2022, keeps the 62–74% range tightly bunched in current pricing. Key variables that could widen probabilities include campaign mobilization intensity among younger voters, regional economic concerns such as cost-of-living pressures or U.S. trade developments, weather on election day, and any late shifts in perceived stakes that alter overall engagement. No major turnout-altering events have emerged since the writs were issued on August 27.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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