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Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Ben McAdams 77%

Nate Blouin 15%

Liban Mohamed 10.6%

Erin Mendenhall <1%

Polymarket

$29,880 Vol.

Ben McAdams 77%

Nate Blouin 15%

Liban Mohamed 10.6%

Erin Mendenhall <1%

Polymarket

$29,880 Vol.

Ben McAdams

$7,943 Vol.

77%

Nate Blouin

$4,106 Vol.

15%

Liban Mohamed

$744 Vol.

11%

Erin Mendenhall

$4,508 Vol.

<1%

Luz Escamilla

$5,829 Vol.

<1%

Caroline Gleich

$1,228 Vol.

<1%

Brian King

$1,190 Vol.

<1%

Kathleen Riebe

$1,615 Vol.

<1%

Michael Farrell

$282 Vol.

<1%

Kael Weston

$1,101 Vol.

<1%

Jenny Wilson

$1,333 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his name recognition, prior congressional experience from 2019-2021, top fundraising totals, and a March poll showing him ahead of the field. Despite Liban Mohamed's upset ranked-choice victory over McAdams at the April 25 state Democratic convention—securing delegate endorsement as the 27-year-old newcomer advanced via signatures—voters will decide among four candidates on the primary ballot: McAdams, Mohamed (10.3%), state Sen. Nate Blouin (15.5%), and Michael Farrell. Blouin's progressive endorsements from groups like Our Revolution contrast with recent controversy over reported vulgar comments, tempering his momentum, while no post-convention polls have emerged to shift the closely watched race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,880
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his name recognition, prior congressional experience from 2019-2021, top fundraising totals, and a March poll showing him ahead of the field. Despite Liban Mohamed's upset ranked-choice victory over McAdams at the April 25 state Democratic convention—securing delegate endorsement as the 27-year-old newcomer advanced via signatures—voters will decide among four candidates on the primary ballot: McAdams, Mohamed (10.3%), state Sen. Nate Blouin (15.5%), and Michael Farrell. Blouin's progressive endorsements from groups like Our Revolution contrast with recent controversy over reported vulgar comments, tempering his momentum, while no post-convention polls have emerged to shift the closely watched race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,880
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben McAdams" at 77%, followed by "Nate Blouin" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $29.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ben McAdams" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nate Blouin" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.