Skip to main content
icon for NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Beth Davidson 43%

Cait Conley 38%

Effie Phillips-Staley 22.4%

Peter Chatzky 1.4%

Polymarket

$60,710 Vol.

Beth Davidson 43%

Cait Conley 38%

Effie Phillips-Staley 22.4%

Peter Chatzky 1.4%

Polymarket

$60,710 Vol.

Beth Davidson

$23,676 Vol.

43%

Cait Conley

$27,630 Vol.

38%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$1,449 Vol.

22%

Peter Chatzky

$3,570 Vol.

1%

John Sullivan

$1,443 Vol.

<1%

Mike Sacks

$1,147 Vol.

<1%

John Cappello

$869 Vol.

<1%

Jessica Reinmann

$927 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary reflects consistently tight polls showing Beth Davidson holding a slim edge over Cait Conley, with Effie Phillips-Staley surging to third amid a May Data for Progress survey revealing strong pro-Palestinian sympathies among district Democrats—outweighing pro-Israel views by 26 points and boosting Phillips-Staley's informed-ballot support. A recent News12 interview with the top five candidates highlighted affordability and electability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler as unifying concerns, but split endorsements—like Bedford Democrats backing Davidson—prevent clear separation in this Hudson Valley battleground. High undecided rates from earlier surveys and upcoming voter outreach before the June 23 primary keep the field fluid, where late fundraising, debates, or turnout in Westchester and Rockland could tip the balance.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$60,710
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary reflects consistently tight polls showing Beth Davidson holding a slim edge over Cait Conley, with Effie Phillips-Staley surging to third amid a May Data for Progress survey revealing strong pro-Palestinian sympathies among district Democrats—outweighing pro-Israel views by 26 points and boosting Phillips-Staley's informed-ballot support. A recent News12 interview with the top five candidates highlighted affordability and electability against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler as unifying concerns, but split endorsements—like Bedford Democrats backing Davidson—prevent clear separation in this Hudson Valley battleground. High undecided rates from earlier surveys and upcoming voter outreach before the June 23 primary keep the field fluid, where late fundraising, debates, or turnout in Westchester and Rockland could tip the balance.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$60,710
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

54%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

32%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

37%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 43%, followed by "Cait Conley" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $60.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Beth Davidson" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cait Conley" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.