Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT). A mid-August Datafolha survey placed Gomes at 52% and de Freitas at 33% in first-round vote intentions, extending an earlier Quaest lead of 43% to 33%. Gomes, a former state governor, benefits from stronger name recognition and lower rejection ratings as the race enters its formal campaign phase with street events and the first televised debate. De Freitas, seeking a second term after his 2022 victory, trails amid higher unfavorable scores and limited momentum despite PT organizational support. Minor candidates, including Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and others, register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing past the first round on October 4. These factors align with market-implied probabilities favoring Gomes while leaving room for shifts from late-campaign dynamics or turnout variations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ciro Gomes 75%
Elmano de Freitas 26%
Eduardo Girão <1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 <1%
$143,434 交易量
$143,434 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
75%
Elmano de Freitas
26%
Eduardo Girão
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Ciro Gomes 75%
Elmano de Freitas 26%
Eduardo Girão <1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 <1%
$143,434 交易量
$143,434 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
$79,089 交易量
75%
Elmano de Freitas
$25,152 交易量
26%
Eduardo Girão
$10,738 交易量
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$8,415 交易量
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$10,319 交易量
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$9,721 交易量
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT). A mid-August Datafolha survey placed Gomes at 52% and de Freitas at 33% in first-round vote intentions, extending an earlier Quaest lead of 43% to 33%. Gomes, a former state governor, benefits from stronger name recognition and lower rejection ratings as the race enters its formal campaign phase with street events and the first televised debate. De Freitas, seeking a second term after his 2022 victory, trails amid higher unfavorable scores and limited momentum despite PT organizational support. Minor candidates, including Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and others, register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing past the first round on October 4. These factors align with market-implied probabilities favoring Gomes while leaving room for shifts from late-campaign dynamics or turnout variations.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$143,434结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT). A mid-August Datafolha survey placed Gomes at 52% and de Freitas at 33% in first-round vote intentions, extending an earlier Quaest lead of 43% to 33%. Gomes, a former state governor, benefits from stronger name recognition and lower rejection ratings as the race enters its formal campaign phase with street events and the first televised debate. De Freitas, seeking a second term after his 2022 victory, trails amid higher unfavorable scores and limited momentum despite PT organizational support. Minor candidates, including Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and others, register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing past the first round on October 4. These factors align with market-implied probabilities favoring Gomes while leaving room for shifts from late-campaign dynamics or turnout variations.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$143,434结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT). A mid-August Datafolha survey placed Gomes at 52% and de Freitas at 33% in first-round vote intentions, extending an earlier Quaest lead of 43% to 33%. Gomes, a former state governor, benefits from stronger name recognition and lower rejection ratings as the race enters its formal campaign phase with street events and the first televised debate. De Freitas, seeking a second term after his 2022 victory, trails amid higher unfavorable scores and limited momentum despite PT organizational support. Minor candidates, including Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and others, register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing past the first round on October 4. These factors align with market-implied probabilities favoring Gomes while leaving room for shifts from late-campaign dynamics or turnout variations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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