National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF currently favor a daytime high of 76–79°F for Denver on May 16, anchoring the 76–77°F bin as the market leader at 50.5% implied probability. A persistent upper-level ridge over the central Rockies promotes subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime heating from overnight lows near 55°F, while dry antecedent soils amplify surface warming several degrees above the mid-May climatological normal of 73°F. Light south-southeast winds and minimal cloud cover support peak readings in the late afternoon, though an approaching weak shortwave trough introduces modest uncertainty that could cap temperatures in the mid-70s. Traders are monitoring the next model update cycle for any refinement ahead of resolution.