Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
24°C 25%
23°C 24%
22°C 17.6%
25°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
20°C or below
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
18%
23°C
26%
24°C
25%
25°C
12%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 25%
23°C 24%
22°C 17.6%
25°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
20°C or below
$1,414 交易量
1%
21°C
$668 交易量
6%
22°C
$365 交易量
18%
23°C
$108 交易量
26%
24°C
$154 交易量
25%
25°C
$469 交易量
12%
26°C
$381 交易量
5%
27°C
$343 交易量
2%
28°C
$124 交易量
1%
29°C
$633 交易量
1%
30°C or higher
$471 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$5,129结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$5,129结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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