Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 6°C (32.5% implied probability) for London on May 16, driven by the Met Office's latest hourly forecast updated early May 15, projecting an early-morning dip to 7°C amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5-9 mph, which limit radiative cooling. BBC Weather aligns with a 10°C low under light cloud, but model discrepancies—GFS and ECMWF ensembles varying 5-8°C—fuel the broad distribution, as partial clearing or stronger boundary-layer mixing could push toward 5°C or retain warmth above 8°C. Urban heat island effects in central London often elevate minima by 1-2°C relative to Heathrow observations, while typical mid-May climatology averages 8°C lows. Updated forecasts expected throughout May 15 may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月16日伦敦最低气温？
5月16日伦敦最低气温？
5°C 30%
6°C 30%
7°C 22%
8°C 6.6%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
0°C或更低
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
5%
5°C
22%
6°C
30%
7°C
22%
8°C
7%
9°C
1%
10°C或以上
1%
5°C 30%
6°C 30%
7°C 22%
8°C 6.6%
最新
最新
2026-05-16
0°C或更低
$121 交易量
<1%
1°C
$602 交易量
1%
2°C
$201 交易量
<1%
3°C
$157 交易量
1%
4°C
$87 交易量
5%
5°C
$22 交易量
22%
6°C
$21 交易量
30%
7°C
$22 交易量
22%
8°C
$97 交易量
7%
9°C
$147 交易量
1%
10°C或以上
$184 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 6°C (32.5% implied probability) for London on May 16, driven by the Met Office's latest hourly forecast updated early May 15, projecting an early-morning dip to 7°C amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5-9 mph, which limit radiative cooling. BBC Weather aligns with a 10°C low under light cloud, but model discrepancies—GFS and ECMWF ensembles varying 5-8°C—fuel the broad distribution, as partial clearing or stronger boundary-layer mixing could push toward 5°C or retain warmth above 8°C. Urban heat island effects in central London often elevate minima by 1-2°C relative to Heathrow observations, while typical mid-May climatology averages 8°C lows. Updated forecasts expected throughout May 15 may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,656结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 6°C (32.5% implied probability) for London on May 16, driven by the Met Office's latest hourly forecast updated early May 15, projecting an early-morning dip to 7°C amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5-9 mph, which limit radiative cooling. BBC Weather aligns with a 10°C low under light cloud, but model discrepancies—GFS and ECMWF ensembles varying 5-8°C—fuel the broad distribution, as partial clearing or stronger boundary-layer mixing could push toward 5°C or retain warmth above 8°C. Urban heat island effects in central London often elevate minima by 1-2°C relative to Heathrow observations, while typical mid-May climatology averages 8°C lows. Updated forecasts expected throughout May 15 may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,656结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a lowest temperature of 6°C (32.5% implied probability) for London on May 16, driven by the Met Office's latest hourly forecast updated early May 15, projecting an early-morning dip to 7°C amid persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5-9 mph, which limit radiative cooling. BBC Weather aligns with a 10°C low under light cloud, but model discrepancies—GFS and ECMWF ensembles varying 5-8°C—fuel the broad distribution, as partial clearing or stronger boundary-layer mixing could push toward 5°C or retain warmth above 8°C. Urban heat island effects in central London often elevate minima by 1-2°C relative to Heathrow observations, while typical mid-May climatology averages 8°C lows. Updated forecasts expected throughout May 15 may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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