Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured the nomination in an uncontested July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky advanced similarly on the other side. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its consistent voting patterns and the absence of major polling shifts or scandals in recent months. Traders assign the Republican Party a commanding implied probability because the district's partisan composition and Gosar's incumbency create high structural barriers for a Democratic upset. Late developments such as a significant candidate health issue, national political realignment, or unexpected turnout surge in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$25,634 Vol.
$25,634 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$25,634 Vol.
$25,634 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,192 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$15,442 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured the nomination in an uncontested July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky advanced similarly on the other side. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its consistent voting patterns and the absence of major polling shifts or scandals in recent months. Traders assign the Republican Party a commanding implied probability because the district's partisan composition and Gosar's incumbency create high structural barriers for a Democratic upset. Late developments such as a significant candidate health issue, national political realignment, or unexpected turnout surge in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$25,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured the nomination in an uncontested July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky advanced similarly on the other side. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its consistent voting patterns and the absence of major polling shifts or scandals in recent months. Traders assign the Republican Party a commanding implied probability because the district's partisan composition and Gosar's incumbency create high structural barriers for a Democratic upset. Late developments such as a significant candidate health issue, national political realignment, or unexpected turnout surge in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured the nomination in an uncontested July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky advanced similarly on the other side. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting its consistent voting patterns and the absence of major polling shifts or scandals in recent months. Traders assign the Republican Party a commanding implied probability because the district's partisan composition and Gosar's incumbency create high structural barriers for a Democratic upset. Late developments such as a significant candidate health issue, national political realignment, or unexpected turnout surge in the final weeks before the November 3 general election represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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