Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the strongest implied probability among traders for securing the most seats in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 National People’s Assembly election, reflecting its position as the dominant coalition in a fragmented field ahead of the vote. The market’s pricing follows the November 2025 general elections, which were annulled after a military coup ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló days before official results; that coalition had been positioned to contest both the presidency and legislative seats under the prior framework. Subsequent transitional arrangements, including a military-led charter barring interim leaders from running and setting new polls for December 2026, have left the same alliance as the best-organized grouping with broad party support. Smaller parties such as FLING, FREPASNA, and PS trail in odds due to limited national reach and the electoral system’s tilt toward larger coalitions, while the main opposition PAIGC remains sidelined from recent ballots following administrative rulings. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate nominations, and any shifts in military or ECOWAS engagement could still alter positioning before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 12.0%
PS 4.7%
FREPASNA 3.7%
FLING 2.2%
$145,187 Vol.
$145,187 Vol.
Nov 23, 2025
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
12%
PS
5%
FREPASNA
4%
FLING
2%
MUNDO-GB
2%
PT
<1%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 12.0%
PS 4.7%
FREPASNA 3.7%
FLING 2.2%
$145,187 Vol.
$145,187 Vol.
Nov 23, 2025
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
$42,366 Vol.
12%
PS
$23,826 Vol.
5%
FREPASNA
$23,927 Vol.
4%
FLING
$12,154 Vol.
2%
MUNDO-GB
$21,694 Vol.
2%
PT
$21,220 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the strongest implied probability among traders for securing the most seats in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 National People’s Assembly election, reflecting its position as the dominant coalition in a fragmented field ahead of the vote. The market’s pricing follows the November 2025 general elections, which were annulled after a military coup ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló days before official results; that coalition had been positioned to contest both the presidency and legislative seats under the prior framework. Subsequent transitional arrangements, including a military-led charter barring interim leaders from running and setting new polls for December 2026, have left the same alliance as the best-organized grouping with broad party support. Smaller parties such as FLING, FREPASNA, and PS trail in odds due to limited national reach and the electoral system’s tilt toward larger coalitions, while the main opposition PAIGC remains sidelined from recent ballots following administrative rulings. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate nominations, and any shifts in military or ECOWAS engagement could still alter positioning before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Market Opened: Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$145,187End Date
Nov 23, 2025Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the strongest implied probability among traders for securing the most seats in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 National People’s Assembly election, reflecting its position as the dominant coalition in a fragmented field ahead of the vote. The market’s pricing follows the November 2025 general elections, which were annulled after a military coup ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló days before official results; that coalition had been positioned to contest both the presidency and legislative seats under the prior framework. Subsequent transitional arrangements, including a military-led charter barring interim leaders from running and setting new polls for December 2026, have left the same alliance as the best-organized grouping with broad party support. Smaller parties such as FLING, FREPASNA, and PS trail in odds due to limited national reach and the electoral system’s tilt toward larger coalitions, while the main opposition PAIGC remains sidelined from recent ballots following administrative rulings. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate nominations, and any shifts in military or ECOWAS engagement could still alter positioning before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$145,187End Date
Nov 23, 2025Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the strongest implied probability among traders for securing the most seats in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 National People’s Assembly election, reflecting its position as the dominant coalition in a fragmented field ahead of the vote. The market’s pricing follows the November 2025 general elections, which were annulled after a military coup ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló days before official results; that coalition had been positioned to contest both the presidency and legislative seats under the prior framework. Subsequent transitional arrangements, including a military-led charter barring interim leaders from running and setting new polls for December 2026, have left the same alliance as the best-organized grouping with broad party support. Smaller parties such as FLING, FREPASNA, and PS trail in odds due to limited national reach and the electoral system’s tilt toward larger coalitions, while the main opposition PAIGC remains sidelined from recent ballots following administrative rulings. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate nominations, and any shifts in military or ECOWAS engagement could still alter positioning before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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