National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport project a daily high near 91–92°F on May 15 under partly sunny skies and light south winds, establishing strong model consensus for temperatures well above the mid-May climatological average of 86°F. Persistent upper-level high pressure is driving subsidence that suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar heating, with midday observations already surpassing 85°F at key stations. This positions the 86°F-or-higher outcome at market-implied certainty, as ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows minimal spread and no realistic pathway to sub-86°F readings. Traders weigh the slim chance of unexpected convective development or thicker afternoon cloud cover that might trim the peak by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 15?
86°F or higher 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$41,722 Vol.
$41,722 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
Yes
86°F or higher 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$41,722 Vol.
$41,722 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
$6,666 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$3,766 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$10,176 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$2,043 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$2,449 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,718 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,257 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$3,003 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$1,204 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$4,101 Vol.
No
86°F or higher
$5,338 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport project a daily high near 91–92°F on May 15 under partly sunny skies and light south winds, establishing strong model consensus for temperatures well above the mid-May climatological average of 86°F. Persistent upper-level high pressure is driving subsidence that suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar heating, with midday observations already surpassing 85°F at key stations. This positions the 86°F-or-higher outcome at market-implied certainty, as ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows minimal spread and no realistic pathway to sub-86°F readings. Traders weigh the slim chance of unexpected convective development or thicker afternoon cloud cover that might trim the peak by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$41,722End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport project a daily high near 91–92°F on May 15 under partly sunny skies and light south winds, establishing strong model consensus for temperatures well above the mid-May climatological average of 86°F. Persistent upper-level high pressure is driving subsidence that suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar heating, with midday observations already surpassing 85°F at key stations. This positions the 86°F-or-higher outcome at market-implied certainty, as ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows minimal spread and no realistic pathway to sub-86°F readings. Traders weigh the slim chance of unexpected convective development or thicker afternoon cloud cover that might trim the peak by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,722End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport project a daily high near 91–92°F on May 15 under partly sunny skies and light south winds, establishing strong model consensus for temperatures well above the mid-May climatological average of 86°F. Persistent upper-level high pressure is driving subsidence that suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar heating, with midday observations already surpassing 85°F at key stations. This positions the 86°F-or-higher outcome at market-implied certainty, as ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows minimal spread and no realistic pathway to sub-86°F readings. Traders weigh the slim chance of unexpected convective development or thicker afternoon cloud cover that might trim the peak by a degree or two, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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