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Elections·Spain

President of Andalusia after election?

icon for President of Andalusia after election?
Elections·Spain

President of Andalusia after election?

Juanma Moreno 98.4%

María Jesús Montero 1.3%

Manuel Gavira <1%

Antonio Maíllo <1%

Polymarket

$23,014 Vol.

Juanma Moreno 98.4%

María Jesús Montero 1.3%

Manuel Gavira <1%

Antonio Maíllo <1%

Polymarket

$23,014 Vol.

icon for Juanma Moreno

Juanma Moreno

$9,001 Vol.

98%

icon for María Jesús Montero

María Jesús Montero

$4,126 Vol.

1%

icon for Manuel Gavira

Manuel Gavira

$3,843 Vol.

1%

icon for Antonio Maíllo

Antonio Maíllo

$2,964 Vol.

<1%

icon for José Ignacio García

José Ignacio García

$3,080 Vol.

<1%

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls from Sigma Dos, NC Report, and others over the past week show incumbent Juanma Moreno of the Popular Party (PP) on track for an absolute majority in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament, needing just 55 seats, with projections around 56-58 amid strong incumbency from his 2022 landslide. PSOE candidate María Jesús Montero faces historic lows at 25-27 seats due to national headwinds and fragmented left, while Vox's Manuel Gavira stalls at 14-16 and smaller parties like Por Andalucía's Antonio Maíllo and Adelante Andalucía's José Ignacio García trail far behind. Trader consensus at 98% for Moreno reflects this polling stability and his debate performances, though a late scandal, turnout surge for opposition, or coalition surprises post-May 17 vote could theoretically shift investiture dynamics.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count.

If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,014
End Date
May 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls from Sigma Dos, NC Report, and others over the past week show incumbent Juanma Moreno of the Popular Party (PP) on track for an absolute majority in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament, needing just 55 seats, with projections around 56-58 amid strong incumbency from his 2022 landslide. PSOE candidate María Jesús Montero faces historic lows at 25-27 seats due to national headwinds and fragmented left, while Vox's Manuel Gavira stalls at 14-16 and smaller parties like Por Andalucía's Antonio Maíllo and Adelante Andalucía's José Ignacio García trail far behind. Trader consensus at 98% for Moreno reflects this polling stability and his debate performances, though a late scandal, turnout surge for opposition, or coalition surprises post-May 17 vote could theoretically shift investiture dynamics.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count.

If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,014
End Date
May 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"President of Andalusia after election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Juanma Moreno" at 98%, followed by "María Jesús Montero" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "President of Andalusia after election?" has generated $23K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "President of Andalusia after election?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "President of Andalusia after election?" is "Juanma Moreno" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "María Jesús Montero" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "President of Andalusia after election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.