The high probability assigned to no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of announced plans, troop buildups, or official statements signaling full-scale military action after the January 3 targeted operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro. Current U.S. policy under the Trump administration prioritizes counter-narcotics cooperation, tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and partnerships with aligned governments across the region, as seen in recent joint efforts with Ecuador and discussions involving Colombia. Multiple pro-U.S. administrations in Latin America, combined with a focus on economic leverage and limited strikes rather than occupation or regime change beyond the initial operation, have kept escalation risks contained through mid-August. No major diplomatic ruptures or new military deployments point to broader invasions before year-end.