Official India Meteorological Department forecasts for May 16 project a Lucknow maximum near 40–41 °C, driven by widespread thunderstorm activity and increased cloud cover across Uttar Pradesh that limits surface heating. These conditions reduce incoming solar radiation while boosting evaporative cooling and mixing, suppressing the extreme highs of 43–45 °C that often occur under clear, calm anticyclonic regimes typical of late spring. Current observations show temperatures already several degrees below seasonal norms, reinforcing trader consensus for the 41 °C-or-below outcome at near-certainty. Only a rapid shift to cloud-free skies and stronger subsidence could push readings higher, though model guidance shows low probability of such development before evening verification.