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Politics·Taiwan

Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner

Wang Chung-ming 85%

Tsao Erh-yuan 6.7%

Tsao Erh-chang <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Wang Chung-ming 85%

Tsao Erh-yuan 6.7%

Tsao Erh-chang <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Wang Chung-ming

Wang Chung-ming

$3,403 Vol.

85%

icon for Tsao Erh-yuan

Tsao Erh-yuan

$718 Vol.

9%

icon for Tsao Erh-chang

Tsao Erh-chang

$749 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County since 2022, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market, driven by incumbency advantages, established party organizational support, and the county’s consistent KMT voting patterns ahead of the November 28, 2026 local elections. Limited reported challenges or alternative nominations from other parties have kept rivals distant, with Tsao Erh-yuan at 8.8% and Tsao Erh-chang at 0.5%. KMT leadership activities in July 2026, including candidate rallies reinforcing party unity across multiple counties, have further solidified this positioning without indicating shifts in the race. Traders reflect these structural factors in current pricing while allowing for possible late developments such as primary outcomes or additional entries before voting.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,870
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County since 2022, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the market, driven by incumbency advantages, established party organizational support, and the county’s consistent KMT voting patterns ahead of the November 28, 2026 local elections. Limited reported challenges or alternative nominations from other parties have kept rivals distant, with Tsao Erh-yuan at 8.8% and Tsao Erh-chang at 0.5%. KMT leadership activities in July 2026, including candidate rallies reinforcing party unity across multiple counties, have further solidified this positioning without indicating shifts in the race. Traders reflect these structural factors in current pricing while allowing for possible late developments such as primary outcomes or additional entries before voting.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,870
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Wang Chung-ming" at 85%, followed by "Tsao Erh-yuan" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Wang Chung-ming" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tsao Erh-yuan" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.