**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate an overnight low for August 27 near 70–74°F in New York City, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and expected thunderstorms.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under cloudy skies and elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to clearer, drier nights. Recent model runs show the daily minimum likely occurring in the early morning hours, with Central Park and airport sites projected around 70–71°F as the most probable range. Trader positioning on 70–71°F (37.5%) and 72–73°F (27%) aligns with this consensus, while the notable share on 78°F or higher may reflect uncertainty around storm timing or localized urban heat retention. Historical August lows in NYC often fall in the mid-to-upper 60s under similar patterns, but the current setup favors warmer readings. Updated NWS guidance and morning observations on August 27 will provide the decisive data for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 27?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 27?
70-71°F 38%
78°F or higher 32%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
38%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
7%
78°F or higher
32%
70-71°F 38%
78°F or higher 32%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
59°F or below
$48 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$43 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$27 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$22 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
9%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
38%
72-73°F
$108 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$5 Vol.
21%
76-77°F
$5 Vol.
7%
78°F or higher
$27 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate an overnight low for August 27 near 70–74°F in New York City, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and expected thunderstorms.**
These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under cloudy skies and elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to clearer, drier nights. Recent model runs show the daily minimum likely occurring in the early morning hours, with Central Park and airport sites projected around 70–71°F as the most probable range.
Trader positioning on 70–71°F (37.5%) and 72–73°F (27%) aligns with this consensus, while the notable share on 78°F or higher may reflect uncertainty around storm timing or localized urban heat retention. Historical August lows in NYC often fall in the mid-to-upper 60s under similar patterns, but the current setup favors warmer readings. Updated NWS guidance and morning observations on August 27 will provide the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$285End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate an overnight low for August 27 near 70–74°F in New York City, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and expected thunderstorms.**
These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under cloudy skies and elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to clearer, drier nights. Recent model runs show the daily minimum likely occurring in the early morning hours, with Central Park and airport sites projected around 70–71°F as the most probable range.
Trader positioning on 70–71°F (37.5%) and 72–73°F (27%) aligns with this consensus, while the notable share on 78°F or higher may reflect uncertainty around storm timing or localized urban heat retention. Historical August lows in NYC often fall in the mid-to-upper 60s under similar patterns, but the current setup favors warmer readings. Updated NWS guidance and morning observations on August 27 will provide the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$285End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate an overnight low for August 27 near 70–74°F in New York City, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and expected thunderstorms.** These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under cloudy skies and elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to clearer, drier nights. Recent model runs show the daily minimum likely occurring in the early morning hours, with Central Park and airport sites projected around 70–71°F as the most probable range. Trader positioning on 70–71°F (37.5%) and 72–73°F (27%) aligns with this consensus, while the notable share on 78°F or higher may reflect uncertainty around storm timing or localized urban heat retention. Historical August lows in NYC often fall in the mid-to-upper 60s under similar patterns, but the current setup favors warmer readings. Updated NWS guidance and morning observations on August 27 will provide the decisive data for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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