Tennessee's 9th congressional district underwent major redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan balance to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9 after previously favoring Democrats. Longtime incumbent Steve Cohen opted not to seek reelection in the altered map, which now extends into Republican-leaning Nashville suburbs and delivered a 21-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Primaries on August 6 produced Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor and Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson as nominees for the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's new structural tilt and limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee despite Pearson's fundraising. No major late-breaking developments have altered the consensus in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-09 House Election Winner
TN-09 House Election Winner
$33,175 Vol.
$33,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$33,175 Vol.
$33,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,961 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$13,214 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 9th congressional district underwent major redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan balance to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9 after previously favoring Democrats. Longtime incumbent Steve Cohen opted not to seek reelection in the altered map, which now extends into Republican-leaning Nashville suburbs and delivered a 21-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Primaries on August 6 produced Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor and Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson as nominees for the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's new structural tilt and limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee despite Pearson's fundraising. No major late-breaking developments have altered the consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 9th congressional district underwent major redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan balance to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9 after previously favoring Democrats. Longtime incumbent Steve Cohen opted not to seek reelection in the altered map, which now extends into Republican-leaning Nashville suburbs and delivered a 21-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Primaries on August 6 produced Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor and Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson as nominees for the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's new structural tilt and limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee despite Pearson's fundraising. No major late-breaking developments have altered the consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 9th congressional district underwent major redistricting ahead of the 2026 cycle, shifting its partisan balance to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9 after previously favoring Democrats. Longtime incumbent Steve Cohen opted not to seek reelection in the altered map, which now extends into Republican-leaning Nashville suburbs and delivered a 21-point Trump margin in the prior presidential election. Primaries on August 6 produced Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor and Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson as nominees for the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's new structural tilt and limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee despite Pearson's fundraising. No major late-breaking developments have altered the consensus in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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