**Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney have held a consistent double-digit lead in national vote intention polls throughout 2026, with recent surveys showing them at 46-49% support against 27-34% for the Conservatives.** This margin has translated into seat projections where the Liberals are favored to win well over 200 ridings if an election were held now, far ahead of Conservative totals. The 2025 federal election outcome, in which the Liberals secured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144 and formed a minority government, established the baseline, and subsequent polling has shown further Liberal gains rather than any sustained Conservative recovery. Factors such as cross-floor movements to the Liberals, strong regional performance outside traditional Conservative strongholds like Alberta, and voter shifts from former Conservative supporters have reinforced the gap. With no scheduled election until 2029 and no major polling reversal in sight as of early October 2026, traders assess the probability of Conservatives overtaking Liberals in seat projections or becoming the polling favorite this year as very low.