Liberals under Mark Carney secured 169 seats in the April 2025 election and have since consolidated a majority through by-elections and floor-crossings, reaching 172–174 seats. Recent national polls through August 2026 show the Liberals holding a consistent 7–20 point advantage in vote intention, with seat projections from 338Canada and The Writ indicating further Liberal gains from Conservatives at the expense of the opposition. Pierre Poilievre’s party trails on key issues and favourability metrics, with no reversal in regional or national trends. Upcoming August 31 by-elections and the fixed election date no later than 2029 provide limited near-term catalysts for a Conservative surge. Trader consensus around 95 percent for “No” reflects this sustained polling gap and institutional stability, though external shocks such as major trade disruptions or domestic economic shifts could still alter trajectories before the next general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberals under Mark Carney secured 169 seats in the April 2025 election and have since consolidated a majority through by-elections and floor-crossings, reaching 172–174 seats. Recent national polls through August 2026 show the Liberals holding a consistent 7–20 point advantage in vote intention, with seat projections from 338Canada and The Writ indicating further Liberal gains from Conservatives at the expense of the opposition. Pierre Poilievre’s party trails on key issues and favourability metrics, with no reversal in regional or national trends. Upcoming August 31 by-elections and the fixed election date no later than 2029 provide limited near-term catalysts for a Conservative surge. Trader consensus around 95 percent for “No” reflects this sustained polling gap and institutional stability, though external shocks such as major trade disruptions or domestic economic shifts could still alter trajectories before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberals under Mark Carney secured 169 seats in the April 2025 election and have since consolidated a majority through by-elections and floor-crossings, reaching 172–174 seats. Recent national polls through August 2026 show the Liberals holding a consistent 7–20 point advantage in vote intention, with seat projections from 338Canada and The Writ indicating further Liberal gains from Conservatives at the expense of the opposition. Pierre Poilievre’s party trails on key issues and favourability metrics, with no reversal in regional or national trends. Upcoming August 31 by-elections and the fixed election date no later than 2029 provide limited near-term catalysts for a Conservative surge. Trader consensus around 95 percent for “No” reflects this sustained polling gap and institutional stability, though external shocks such as major trade disruptions or domestic economic shifts could still alter trajectories before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$8,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Liberals under Mark Carney secured 169 seats in the April 2025 election and have since consolidated a majority through by-elections and floor-crossings, reaching 172–174 seats. Recent national polls through August 2026 show the Liberals holding a consistent 7–20 point advantage in vote intention, with seat projections from 338Canada and The Writ indicating further Liberal gains from Conservatives at the expense of the opposition. Pierre Poilievre’s party trails on key issues and favourability metrics, with no reversal in regional or national trends. Upcoming August 31 by-elections and the fixed election date no later than 2029 provide limited near-term catalysts for a Conservative surge. Trader consensus around 95 percent for “No” reflects this sustained polling gap and institutional stability, though external shocks such as major trade disruptions or domestic economic shifts could still alter trajectories before the next general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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