The market-implied probability for a 21°C high in Qingdao on May 16 overwhelmingly reflects the latest consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration alongside ECMWF and GFS model runs. These guidance products show partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea, and daytime maximum temperatures stabilizing near 21°C, aligning with typical mid-May climatology for the coastal station at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport. The tight clustering around this value leaves little room for deviation on resolution day. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger warm-air advection from the south could still nudge readings one or two degrees higher, though current observational trends and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,431 Vol.
$33,431 Vol.
May 16, 2026
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,431 Vol.
$33,431 Vol.
May 16, 2026
21°C
$11,693 Vol.
100%
22°C
$3,582 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,786 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,583 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,070 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,960 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$996 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,469 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,325 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability for a 21°C high in Qingdao on May 16 overwhelmingly reflects the latest consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration alongside ECMWF and GFS model runs. These guidance products show partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea, and daytime maximum temperatures stabilizing near 21°C, aligning with typical mid-May climatology for the coastal station at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport. The tight clustering around this value leaves little room for deviation on resolution day. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger warm-air advection from the south could still nudge readings one or two degrees higher, though current observational trends and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$33,431End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability for a 21°C high in Qingdao on May 16 overwhelmingly reflects the latest consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration alongside ECMWF and GFS model runs. These guidance products show partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea, and daytime maximum temperatures stabilizing near 21°C, aligning with typical mid-May climatology for the coastal station at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport. The tight clustering around this value leaves little room for deviation on resolution day. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger warm-air advection from the south could still nudge readings one or two degrees higher, though current observational trends and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,431End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied probability for a 21°C high in Qingdao on May 16 overwhelmingly reflects the latest consensus from short-range ensemble forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration alongside ECMWF and GFS model runs. These guidance products show partly cloudy skies, moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea, and daytime maximum temperatures stabilizing near 21°C, aligning with typical mid-May climatology for the coastal station at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport. The tight clustering around this value leaves little room for deviation on resolution day. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger warm-air advection from the south could still nudge readings one or two degrees higher, though current observational trends and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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