Recent model consensus points to a strengthening El Niño emerging by mid-2026, which, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports May global temperature anomalies clustering in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels. April 2026 observations reached 1.43 °C, yet seasonal cooling typically occurs before peak El Niño impacts later in the year, aligning trader positioning with this bin. Neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions early in 2026 and recent multi-model forecasts for above-normal land temperatures further anchor the market-implied odds near 61.5 percent, while historical analogs from comparable transition years indicate limited downside risk below 1.10 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,916 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,419 Vol.
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent model consensus points to a strengthening El Niño emerging by mid-2026, which, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports May global temperature anomalies clustering in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels. April 2026 observations reached 1.43 °C, yet seasonal cooling typically occurs before peak El Niño impacts later in the year, aligning trader positioning with this bin. Neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions early in 2026 and recent multi-model forecasts for above-normal land temperatures further anchor the market-implied odds near 61.5 percent, while historical analogs from comparable transition years indicate limited downside risk below 1.10 °C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,198End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent model consensus points to a strengthening El Niño emerging by mid-2026, which, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports May global temperature anomalies clustering in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels. April 2026 observations reached 1.43 °C, yet seasonal cooling typically occurs before peak El Niño impacts later in the year, aligning trader positioning with this bin. Neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions early in 2026 and recent multi-model forecasts for above-normal land temperatures further anchor the market-implied odds near 61.5 percent, while historical analogs from comparable transition years indicate limited downside risk below 1.10 °C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,198End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to a strengthening El Niño emerging by mid-2026, which, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports May global temperature anomalies clustering in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels. April 2026 observations reached 1.43 °C, yet seasonal cooling typically occurs before peak El Niño impacts later in the year, aligning trader positioning with this bin. Neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions early in 2026 and recent multi-model forecasts for above-normal land temperatures further anchor the market-implied odds near 61.5 percent, while historical analogs from comparable transition years indicate limited downside risk below 1.10 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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