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icon for Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds 99.2%

James Fishback <1%

Jay Collins <1%

Wilton Simpson <1%

Polymarket

$4,475,177 Vol.

Byron Donalds 99.2%

James Fishback <1%

Jay Collins <1%

Wilton Simpson <1%

Polymarket

$4,475,177 Vol.

icon for Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

$658,792 Vol.

99%

icon for James Fishback

James Fishback

$2,409,909 Vol.

1%

icon for Jay Collins

Jay Collins

$999,724 Vol.

<1%

icon for Wilton Simpson

Wilton Simpson

$75,086 Vol.

<1%

icon for Casey DeSantis

Casey DeSantis

$224,504 Vol.

<1%

icon for Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz

$52,968 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jimmy Patronis

Jimmy Patronis

$54,195 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds holds overwhelming trader consensus in the Florida Republican primary for governor due to President Trump's early and explicit endorsement, consistent polling leads of 30-plus points among likely GOP voters, and a dominant fundraising edge exceeding $100 million. Multiple surveys through mid-August place him near or above 45-50% support, far ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and other declared candidates. The August 18 primary date leaves limited runway for challengers to close gaps. While a late-breaking development such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected surge by a rival could theoretically alter dynamics, the combination of institutional backing, voter data, and resource advantage has produced the current near-certain positioning in the market.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,475,177
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Byron Donalds holds overwhelming trader consensus in the Florida Republican primary for governor due to President Trump's early and explicit endorsement, consistent polling leads of 30-plus points among likely GOP voters, and a dominant fundraising edge exceeding $100 million. Multiple surveys through mid-August place him near or above 45-50% support, far ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and other declared candidates. The August 18 primary date leaves limited runway for challengers to close gaps. While a late-breaking development such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected surge by a rival could theoretically alter dynamics, the combination of institutional backing, voter data, and resource advantage has produced the current near-certain positioning in the market.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,475,177
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Byron Donalds" at 99%, followed by "James Fishback" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $4.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Byron Donalds" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Fishback" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.