Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月14日上海最低气温？
5月14日上海最低气温？
20°C 100.0%
15°C或以下 <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 交易量
$23,490 交易量
2026-05-14
15°C或以下
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
是
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C或更高
否
20°C 100.0%
15°C或以下 <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 交易量
$23,490 交易量
2026-05-14
15°C或以下
$298 交易量
否
16°C
$1,183 交易量
否
17°C
$1,381 交易量
否
18°C
$1,821 交易量
否
19°C
$5,531 交易量
否
20°C
$3,019 交易量
是
21°C
$7,284 交易量
否
22°C
$703 交易量
否
23°C
$670 交易量
否
24°C
$844 交易量
否
25°C或更高
$757 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
交易量
$23,490结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$23,490结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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