Latest forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies across southeast Texas, driving the official high temperature at Houston’s Hobby Airport station to 88°F or higher on May 16. This aligns with mid-May climatological norms near 87°F and ongoing warm advection from the Gulf. The market assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 88°F-or-higher outcome because ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only modest low-level moisture potentially increasing cloud cover. The primary risk to this consensus would be unexpected convective development or stronger southerly flow that enhances boundary-layer mixing and caps the peak a degree or two lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 16?
$36,805 Vol.
$36,805 Vol.
May 16, 2026
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
100%
$36,805 Vol.
$36,805 Vol.
May 16, 2026
86-87°F
$4,109 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$5,670 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies across southeast Texas, driving the official high temperature at Houston’s Hobby Airport station to 88°F or higher on May 16. This aligns with mid-May climatological norms near 87°F and ongoing warm advection from the Gulf. The market assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 88°F-or-higher outcome because ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only modest low-level moisture potentially increasing cloud cover. The primary risk to this consensus would be unexpected convective development or stronger southerly flow that enhances boundary-layer mixing and caps the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$36,805End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies across southeast Texas, driving the official high temperature at Houston’s Hobby Airport station to 88°F or higher on May 16. This aligns with mid-May climatological norms near 87°F and ongoing warm advection from the Gulf. The market assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 88°F-or-higher outcome because ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only modest low-level moisture potentially increasing cloud cover. The primary risk to this consensus would be unexpected convective development or stronger southerly flow that enhances boundary-layer mixing and caps the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,805End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies across southeast Texas, driving the official high temperature at Houston’s Hobby Airport station to 88°F or higher on May 16. This aligns with mid-May climatological norms near 87°F and ongoing warm advection from the Gulf. The market assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 88°F-or-higher outcome because ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, with only modest low-level moisture potentially increasing cloud cover. The primary risk to this consensus would be unexpected convective development or stronger southerly flow that enhances boundary-layer mixing and caps the peak a degree or two lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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