The market-implied odds of 20°C as Madrid’s highest temperature on May 16 sit at 100% because official meteorological observations from Spain’s AEMET network recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at the primary Madrid station. This outcome aligns with surface station data showing stable spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge, with afternoon readings peaking at that level and no hourly observations exceeding it. Model analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts further corroborate the absence of warmer advection or urban heat-island amplification on that date. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision from AEMET, a change in the market’s designated reference station, or an undetected instrument calibration issue—scenarios that remain improbable given the consistency across multiple nearby reporting sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$85,964 Vol.
$85,964 Vol.
May 16, 2026
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$85,964 Vol.
$85,964 Vol.
May 16, 2026
20°C
$11,262 Vol.
100%
21°C
$12,254 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$10,365 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,885 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,168 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$2,529 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds of 20°C as Madrid’s highest temperature on May 16 sit at 100% because official meteorological observations from Spain’s AEMET network recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at the primary Madrid station. This outcome aligns with surface station data showing stable spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge, with afternoon readings peaking at that level and no hourly observations exceeding it. Model analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts further corroborate the absence of warmer advection or urban heat-island amplification on that date. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision from AEMET, a change in the market’s designated reference station, or an undetected instrument calibration issue—scenarios that remain improbable given the consistency across multiple nearby reporting sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$85,964End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds of 20°C as Madrid’s highest temperature on May 16 sit at 100% because official meteorological observations from Spain’s AEMET network recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at the primary Madrid station. This outcome aligns with surface station data showing stable spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge, with afternoon readings peaking at that level and no hourly observations exceeding it. Model analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts further corroborate the absence of warmer advection or urban heat-island amplification on that date. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision from AEMET, a change in the market’s designated reference station, or an undetected instrument calibration issue—scenarios that remain improbable given the consistency across multiple nearby reporting sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$85,964End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market-implied odds of 20°C as Madrid’s highest temperature on May 16 sit at 100% because official meteorological observations from Spain’s AEMET network recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C at the primary Madrid station. This outcome aligns with surface station data showing stable spring conditions under a high-pressure ridge, with afternoon readings peaking at that level and no hourly observations exceeding it. Model analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts further corroborate the absence of warmer advection or urban heat-island amplification on that date. A realistic challenge would require post-event data revision from AEMET, a change in the market’s designated reference station, or an undetected instrument calibration issue—scenarios that remain improbable given the consistency across multiple nearby reporting sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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