Current forecast models from European weather agencies indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that promotes subsidence, clear skies, and light northerly winds, all of which suppress vertical mixing and limit surface heating. This alignment across ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts creates the strong scientific consensus reflected in the market-implied 100% probability for exactly 20°C. Historical May climatology for central Spain shows typical highs around 22–24°C, but today's stable synoptic pattern deviates from those norms. The outcome could shift only if rapid changes in cloud cover or wind direction occur before peak heating, or if afternoon observations from official stations like Madrid-Barajas revise the daily maximum upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$84,750 Vol.
$84,750 Vol.
May 16, 2026
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$84,750 Vol.
$84,750 Vol.
May 16, 2026
20°C
$10,802 Vol.
100%
21°C
$11,852 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$10,022 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,884 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,168 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$2,529 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from European weather agencies indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that promotes subsidence, clear skies, and light northerly winds, all of which suppress vertical mixing and limit surface heating. This alignment across ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts creates the strong scientific consensus reflected in the market-implied 100% probability for exactly 20°C. Historical May climatology for central Spain shows typical highs around 22–24°C, but today's stable synoptic pattern deviates from those norms. The outcome could shift only if rapid changes in cloud cover or wind direction occur before peak heating, or if afternoon observations from official stations like Madrid-Barajas revise the daily maximum upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$84,750End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from European weather agencies indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that promotes subsidence, clear skies, and light northerly winds, all of which suppress vertical mixing and limit surface heating. This alignment across ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts creates the strong scientific consensus reflected in the market-implied 100% probability for exactly 20°C. Historical May climatology for central Spain shows typical highs around 22–24°C, but today's stable synoptic pattern deviates from those norms. The outcome could shift only if rapid changes in cloud cover or wind direction occur before peak heating, or if afternoon observations from official stations like Madrid-Barajas revise the daily maximum upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$84,750End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast models from European weather agencies indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C for Madrid on May 16, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that promotes subsidence, clear skies, and light northerly winds, all of which suppress vertical mixing and limit surface heating. This alignment across ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts creates the strong scientific consensus reflected in the market-implied 100% probability for exactly 20°C. Historical May climatology for central Spain shows typical highs around 22–24°C, but today's stable synoptic pattern deviates from those norms. The outcome could shift only if rapid changes in cloud cover or wind direction occur before peak heating, or if afternoon observations from official stations like Madrid-Barajas revise the daily maximum upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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