The market's decisive consensus on 15°C as Munich's highest temperature on May 15 stems from official surface observations by the German Weather Service, which recorded a precise daily maximum under a stable high-pressure regime with northwest winds limiting diurnal warming to modest levels. Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had consistently projected this outcome, citing partial cloud cover and a residual cool maritime air mass that suppressed readings below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18°C. These verified station data, aligned across multiple Munich sites, anchor the market-implied odds. Only an unforeseen post-analysis correction to the observation record or a redefinition of the 24-hour measurement window could shift the result, though both remain statistically improbable given the robustness of the monitoring network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 15?
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$74,028 Vol.
$74,028 Vol.
May 15, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$74,028 Vol.
$74,028 Vol.
May 15, 2026
7°C or below
$807 Vol.
No
8°C
$1,225 Vol.
No
9°C
$2,087 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,369 Vol.
No
11°C
$4,586 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,711 Vol.
No
13°C
$6,818 Vol.
No
14°C
$12,481 Vol.
No
15°C
$14,419 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$18,017 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$6,509 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive consensus on 15°C as Munich's highest temperature on May 15 stems from official surface observations by the German Weather Service, which recorded a precise daily maximum under a stable high-pressure regime with northwest winds limiting diurnal warming to modest levels. Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had consistently projected this outcome, citing partial cloud cover and a residual cool maritime air mass that suppressed readings below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18°C. These verified station data, aligned across multiple Munich sites, anchor the market-implied odds. Only an unforeseen post-analysis correction to the observation record or a redefinition of the 24-hour measurement window could shift the result, though both remain statistically improbable given the robustness of the monitoring network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$74,028End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive consensus on 15°C as Munich's highest temperature on May 15 stems from official surface observations by the German Weather Service, which recorded a precise daily maximum under a stable high-pressure regime with northwest winds limiting diurnal warming to modest levels. Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had consistently projected this outcome, citing partial cloud cover and a residual cool maritime air mass that suppressed readings below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18°C. These verified station data, aligned across multiple Munich sites, anchor the market-implied odds. Only an unforeseen post-analysis correction to the observation record or a redefinition of the 24-hour measurement window could shift the result, though both remain statistically improbable given the robustness of the monitoring network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$74,028End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's decisive consensus on 15°C as Munich's highest temperature on May 15 stems from official surface observations by the German Weather Service, which recorded a precise daily maximum under a stable high-pressure regime with northwest winds limiting diurnal warming to modest levels. Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had consistently projected this outcome, citing partial cloud cover and a residual cool maritime air mass that suppressed readings below the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18°C. These verified station data, aligned across multiple Munich sites, anchor the market-implied odds. Only an unforeseen post-analysis correction to the observation record or a redefinition of the 24-hour measurement window could shift the result, though both remain statistically improbable given the robustness of the monitoring network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions