National Weather Service forecast models and supporting numerical guidance converged overnight on a daily high of 58–59 °F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, driving the market’s near-certain implied probability for that bin. Persistent onshore marine flow from the cool Pacific waters has maintained a strong temperature inversion and extensive low-level stratus, capping afternoon warming in line with mid-May climatology for the Puget Sound region. This pattern aligns with La Niña-enhanced spring conditions that favor cooler, cloudier days across the Pacific Northwest. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt ridge breakdown or offshore flow reversal, neither of which appears in the latest model runs before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 16?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 16?
58-59°F 100.0%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$93,319 Vol.
$93,319 Vol.
May 16, 2026
58-59°F
100%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
58-59°F 100.0%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$93,319 Vol.
$93,319 Vol.
May 16, 2026
58-59°F
$8,804 Vol.
100%
60-61°F
$14,402 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$9,448 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,754 Vol.
<1%
66°F or higher
$2,236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast models and supporting numerical guidance converged overnight on a daily high of 58–59 °F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, driving the market’s near-certain implied probability for that bin. Persistent onshore marine flow from the cool Pacific waters has maintained a strong temperature inversion and extensive low-level stratus, capping afternoon warming in line with mid-May climatology for the Puget Sound region. This pattern aligns with La Niña-enhanced spring conditions that favor cooler, cloudier days across the Pacific Northwest. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt ridge breakdown or offshore flow reversal, neither of which appears in the latest model runs before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$93,319End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast models and supporting numerical guidance converged overnight on a daily high of 58–59 °F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, driving the market’s near-certain implied probability for that bin. Persistent onshore marine flow from the cool Pacific waters has maintained a strong temperature inversion and extensive low-level stratus, capping afternoon warming in line with mid-May climatology for the Puget Sound region. This pattern aligns with La Niña-enhanced spring conditions that favor cooler, cloudier days across the Pacific Northwest. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt ridge breakdown or offshore flow reversal, neither of which appears in the latest model runs before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$93,319End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service forecast models and supporting numerical guidance converged overnight on a daily high of 58–59 °F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, driving the market’s near-certain implied probability for that bin. Persistent onshore marine flow from the cool Pacific waters has maintained a strong temperature inversion and extensive low-level stratus, capping afternoon warming in line with mid-May climatology for the Puget Sound region. This pattern aligns with La Niña-enhanced spring conditions that favor cooler, cloudier days across the Pacific Northwest. The only realistic shifts would require an abrupt ridge breakdown or offshore flow reversal, neither of which appears in the latest model runs before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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