Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place global temperatures near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline for 2025, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic trend superimposed on ENSO-neutral conditions that persisted through early 2026. With subsurface Pacific warming now evident and an 82 % probability of El Niño onset by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center, May 2026 surface anomalies are expected to remain anchored near recent monthly values in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Model ensembles show limited disagreement for this month, as the developing warm phase has not yet produced the strongest teleconnections that typically elevate later-year temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 62%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
62%
1.15–1.19ºC
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 62%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,916 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
62%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,419 Vol.
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place global temperatures near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline for 2025, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic trend superimposed on ENSO-neutral conditions that persisted through early 2026. With subsurface Pacific warming now evident and an 82 % probability of El Niño onset by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center, May 2026 surface anomalies are expected to remain anchored near recent monthly values in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Model ensembles show limited disagreement for this month, as the developing warm phase has not yet produced the strongest teleconnections that typically elevate later-year temperatures.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,198End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place global temperatures near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline for 2025, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic trend superimposed on ENSO-neutral conditions that persisted through early 2026. With subsurface Pacific warming now evident and an 82 % probability of El Niño onset by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center, May 2026 surface anomalies are expected to remain anchored near recent monthly values in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Model ensembles show limited disagreement for this month, as the developing warm phase has not yet produced the strongest teleconnections that typically elevate later-year temperatures.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,198End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place global temperatures near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline for 2025, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic trend superimposed on ENSO-neutral conditions that persisted through early 2026. With subsurface Pacific warming now evident and an 82 % probability of El Niño onset by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center, May 2026 surface anomalies are expected to remain anchored near recent monthly values in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Model ensembles show limited disagreement for this month, as the developing warm phase has not yet produced the strongest teleconnections that typically elevate later-year temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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