Current forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature of 13°C in Munich on May 16, supported by a persistent cool polar air mass, widespread cloud cover limiting solar heating, and light westerly winds that suppress afternoon warming. Mid-May climatological averages near 18°C are being undercut by an upper-level trough and weak insolation under mostly overcast skies with light rain, keeping surface temperatures capped well below seasonal norms. This scientific consensus across model runs explains the overwhelming market-implied probability for the 13°C outcome. Unexpected afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a faster shift in steering flow could push readings higher, though current guidance shows little divergence in that direction.