Recent cool and unsettled Atlantic-influenced weather has kept daytime highs in Paris moderated near seasonal norms, with official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models currently favoring a maximum of 15–17 °C on May 18. Persistent cloud cover limits solar heating, while light northerly flow and residual moisture from earlier showers suppress rapid warming. These conditions create tight differentiation among the leading outcomes, as small shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could add or subtract 1–2 °C by midday. Historical May averages sit slightly higher around 18–20 °C, but the current pattern aligns with the market’s emphasis on 16 °C as the most probable peak. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the final range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 18?
16°C 35%
15°C 27%
17°C 21%
14°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
11%
15°C
27%
16°C
35%
17°C
21%
18°C
5%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 35%
15°C 27%
17°C 21%
14°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$590 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$559 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$657 Vol.
1%
13°C
$266 Vol.
3%
14°C
$369 Vol.
11%
15°C
$271 Vol.
27%
16°C
$197 Vol.
35%
17°C
$210 Vol.
21%
18°C
$182 Vol.
5%
19°C or higher
$323 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent cool and unsettled Atlantic-influenced weather has kept daytime highs in Paris moderated near seasonal norms, with official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models currently favoring a maximum of 15–17 °C on May 18. Persistent cloud cover limits solar heating, while light northerly flow and residual moisture from earlier showers suppress rapid warming. These conditions create tight differentiation among the leading outcomes, as small shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could add or subtract 1–2 °C by midday. Historical May averages sit slightly higher around 18–20 °C, but the current pattern aligns with the market’s emphasis on 16 °C as the most probable peak. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the final range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,917End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent cool and unsettled Atlantic-influenced weather has kept daytime highs in Paris moderated near seasonal norms, with official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models currently favoring a maximum of 15–17 °C on May 18. Persistent cloud cover limits solar heating, while light northerly flow and residual moisture from earlier showers suppress rapid warming. These conditions create tight differentiation among the leading outcomes, as small shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could add or subtract 1–2 °C by midday. Historical May averages sit slightly higher around 18–20 °C, but the current pattern aligns with the market’s emphasis on 16 °C as the most probable peak. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the final range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,917End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent cool and unsettled Atlantic-influenced weather has kept daytime highs in Paris moderated near seasonal norms, with official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models currently favoring a maximum of 15–17 °C on May 18. Persistent cloud cover limits solar heating, while light northerly flow and residual moisture from earlier showers suppress rapid warming. These conditions create tight differentiation among the leading outcomes, as small shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could add or subtract 1–2 °C by midday. Historical May averages sit slightly higher around 18–20 °C, but the current pattern aligns with the market’s emphasis on 16 °C as the most probable peak. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the final range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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