Recent meteorological consensus from Meteo-France and ECMWF ensemble models supports a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driven by persistent overcast skies, moderate northwesterly flow, and reduced solar insolation that limits daytime warming below the 18°C climatological average. Current surface observations confirm stable boundary-layer conditions with minimal afternoon heating potential, aligning trader consensus at near-certainty for this outcome. Historical May patterns in the region show comparable cool episodes under similar synoptic setups. Resolution hinges on official readings at key stations by late afternoon; only an unforeseen rapid clearance or anomalous warm advection could realistically push the peak above 16°C, though model agreement leaves little room for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 16?
16°C 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$154,837 Vol.
$154,837 Vol.
May 16, 2026
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$154,837 Vol.
$154,837 Vol.
May 16, 2026
16°C
$29,286 Vol.
100%
17°C
$31,985 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$10,666 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,842 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$3,059 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological consensus from Meteo-France and ECMWF ensemble models supports a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driven by persistent overcast skies, moderate northwesterly flow, and reduced solar insolation that limits daytime warming below the 18°C climatological average. Current surface observations confirm stable boundary-layer conditions with minimal afternoon heating potential, aligning trader consensus at near-certainty for this outcome. Historical May patterns in the region show comparable cool episodes under similar synoptic setups. Resolution hinges on official readings at key stations by late afternoon; only an unforeseen rapid clearance or anomalous warm advection could realistically push the peak above 16°C, though model agreement leaves little room for such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$154,837End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological consensus from Meteo-France and ECMWF ensemble models supports a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driven by persistent overcast skies, moderate northwesterly flow, and reduced solar insolation that limits daytime warming below the 18°C climatological average. Current surface observations confirm stable boundary-layer conditions with minimal afternoon heating potential, aligning trader consensus at near-certainty for this outcome. Historical May patterns in the region show comparable cool episodes under similar synoptic setups. Resolution hinges on official readings at key stations by late afternoon; only an unforeseen rapid clearance or anomalous warm advection could realistically push the peak above 16°C, though model agreement leaves little room for such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$154,837End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological consensus from Meteo-France and ECMWF ensemble models supports a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driven by persistent overcast skies, moderate northwesterly flow, and reduced solar insolation that limits daytime warming below the 18°C climatological average. Current surface observations confirm stable boundary-layer conditions with minimal afternoon heating potential, aligning trader consensus at near-certainty for this outcome. Historical May patterns in the region show comparable cool episodes under similar synoptic setups. Resolution hinges on official readings at key stations by late afternoon; only an unforeseen rapid clearance or anomalous warm advection could realistically push the peak above 16°C, though model agreement leaves little room for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions