Traders assign a 98.3% probability against a hurricane forming by May 31 because the Atlantic season officially starts June 1 and historical records show May tropical cyclones reaching hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale are extremely rare, averaging fewer than one per decade. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates sea-surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the typical June threshold, while persistent trade-wind-driven shear continues to disrupt organization of any early disturbances. With only fifteen days remaining, model consensus from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows no imminent system capable of rapid intensification. An unexpected drop in wind shear combined with a sudden influx of tropical moisture could still allow formation, though such conditions would mark a marked departure from long-term climatology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$49,291 Vol.
$49,291 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$49,291 Vol.
$49,291 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Traders assign a 98.3% probability against a hurricane forming by May 31 because the Atlantic season officially starts June 1 and historical records show May tropical cyclones reaching hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale are extremely rare, averaging fewer than one per decade. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates sea-surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the typical June threshold, while persistent trade-wind-driven shear continues to disrupt organization of any early disturbances. With only fifteen days remaining, model consensus from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows no imminent system capable of rapid intensification. An unexpected drop in wind shear combined with a sudden influx of tropical moisture could still allow formation, though such conditions would mark a marked departure from long-term climatology.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$49,291End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Traders assign a 98.3% probability against a hurricane forming by May 31 because the Atlantic season officially starts June 1 and historical records show May tropical cyclones reaching hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale are extremely rare, averaging fewer than one per decade. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates sea-surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the typical June threshold, while persistent trade-wind-driven shear continues to disrupt organization of any early disturbances. With only fifteen days remaining, model consensus from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows no imminent system capable of rapid intensification. An unexpected drop in wind shear combined with a sudden influx of tropical moisture could still allow formation, though such conditions would mark a marked departure from long-term climatology.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$49,291End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.3% probability against a hurricane forming by May 31 because the Atlantic season officially starts June 1 and historical records show May tropical cyclones reaching hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale are extremely rare, averaging fewer than one per decade. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates sea-surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the typical June threshold, while persistent trade-wind-driven shear continues to disrupt organization of any early disturbances. With only fifteen days remaining, model consensus from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows no imminent system capable of rapid intensification. An unexpected drop in wind shear combined with a sudden influx of tropical moisture could still allow formation, though such conditions would mark a marked departure from long-term climatology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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